My guess of 90 million was slightly over but I have a feeling Swine flu paranoia had an affect on the numbers. This film made 87 million, despite a leaked version, bad reviews (37% on rotten tomatoes), and the usual fanboy bitching and whining about accuracy and not staying true to the comic. The real test for the longevity of a film comes the second week. A drop of less than 50 % is usually a good sign. I’m predicting only 38 million next weekend because its going against Star Trek. Wolverine is a hit but it wont be as big as Iron Man was last year. Iron man had basically 17 before another tent pole feature hit theaters (Indiana Jones on Memorial day weekend). Wolverine has just days before Trek opens
My Star Trek prediction for next weekend is …………………. 94 million. I say that with some hesitation. Trek films haven’t opened big historically and Trekkie’s tend to overestimate their numbers. That being said I think this film has a different kind of buzz and should be a hit. Another good sign is that the critics love it. It has a 100% rating right now on rotten tomatoes. I challenge you to find a bad review for the film.
| This Wk | Last Wk | Title | Dist. | Weekend Gross | Cumulative Gross |
Rlse Wks |
# of Theaters |
| 1 | - | X-Men Origins: Wolverine | 20th Century Fox Distribution | $87,000,000 | $87,000,000 | 1 | 4099 |
| 2 | - | Ghosts of Girlfriends Past | Warner Bros. Pictures Distribution | $15,325,000 | $15,325,000 | 1 | 3175 |
| 3 | 1 | Obsessed | Sony Pictures Releasing | $12,200,000 | $47,002,000 | 2 | 2514 |
| 4 | 2 | 17 Again | Warner Bros. Pictures Distribution | $6,355,000 | $48,497,000 | 3 | 3255 |
| 5 | 6 | Monsters vs. Aliens | Paramount Pictures | $5,800,000 | $182,405,000 | 6 | 2626 |
| 6 | 4 | The Soloist | Paramount Pictures, DreamWorks, Universal Pictures | $5,600,000 | $18,108,000 | 2 | 2033 |
| 7 | 5 | Earth | Disneynature | $4,184,000 | $21,848,000 | 2 | 1804 |
| 8 | 3 | Fighting | Universal Pictures | $4,173,000 | $17,507,000 | 2 | 2312 |
| 9 | 8 | Hannah Montana The Movie | Buena Vista Pictures Distribution | $4,075,000 | $70,857,000 | 4 | 2819 |
| 10 | 7 | State of Play | Universal Pictures | $3,655,000 | $30,883,000 | 3 | 2445 |
| 11 | 9 | Fast & Furious | Universal Pictures | $2,725,000 | $149,768,000 | 5 | 2547 |
| 12 | - | Battle for Terra | Lionsgate, Roadside Attractions | $1,064,000 | $1,064,000 | 1 | 1162 |
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This post was written by Lobo on May 4, 2009
2 Comments so far
First, that's an awful lot of screens that it played on. And second, I won't be surprised if it has a 75-80 percent drop off for next weekend.
I think the number of screen matters more on opening weekend than subsequent weekends. A sold out theater will push people to different films. I think Wolverine will still be in over 3000 screens this weekend. I think a 75 to 85 drop is extreme if that where true it would only make between 17 and 21 million. Watchmen made 17 million it second weekend and it was nowhere near Wolverines opening weekend.
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